RBS REACTS – Organisational Risk – Predicting the Unpredictable’ by Steven Harris

Overview

In a world where political unrest, rising living costs, and rapid tech changes are the norm, how should safety and risk professionals respond? This blog breaks down the ideas shared in Steve Harris’s thought-provoking article from Sentinel Magazine, discussed by James MacPherson on the Rebranding Safety podcast. We explore how safety is more than about rules and PPE.  You need to understand the bigger picture, spot risks before they grow, and influence decisions that keep people safe and organisations strong.

RBS REACTS – Episode 5 – ‘Organisational Risk – Predicting the Unpredictable’ by Steven Harris

The World Has Changed, But Has Safety Kept Up?

Today’s world is anything but stable. From the cost of energy to political uncertainty, risks are everywhere, and they’re no longer about physical hazards in the workplace.

As James points out, many of us in safety haven’t yet caught up. We’re still thinking about slips, trips, and tick-box assessments, while the world outside is shifting fast. A change in government, global conflict, or even new tech could ripple through your organisation and impact safety in surprising ways.

Key takeaway – Safety extends beyond compliance. You need to learn how external changes affect your people and your operations.

Known Unknowns – What We Don’t Know We Don’t Know

Steve Harris talks about the idea of “known unknowns,” things we know we don’t understand fully, like a possible recession or a pandemic. Fortunately, these events can be predicted. We often see signs. We only need to connect the dots in time.

Example – COVID-19 was hardly a surprise. We knew pandemics could happen, but we didn’t know when or how bad it would be. The lesson? We must think ahead, even when we’re not sure what exactly is coming.

Step 1 – Build a Real Risk Register

Forget dusty spreadsheets. A risk register shouldn’t just list hazards — it should reflect the real threats and pressures your organisation faces.

Think about:

• Energy costs – Is your factory struggling with bills?
• Customer pressure – Are they asking for unsafe speed or cutting corners?
• Public opinion – Is your work being lumped in with “red tape”?

Consider these safety strategies, or you’ll be left behind.

Step 2: Identify Your Interested Parties

In ISO language, “interested parties” are anyone who can affect your business or be affected by it. This includes:

• Staff
• Clients and customers
• Suppliers
• Shareholders
• Regulators

Understanding these groups helps you see new risks and opportunities. A customer’s push for more paperwork may damage your culture, or their modern approach to safety could inspire change.

Step 3: PESTLE & SWOT – Get Analytical

Steve suggests using two handy tools:

• PESTLE (Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Legal, Environmental)
• SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats)

For each PESTLE area, do a quick SWOT. For example:

• Political threat: Government cuts health & safety budgets
• Tech opportunity: New tools help predict risks earlier
• Economic weakness: Rising costs make investment harder

This helps you understand what’s coming from all angles, not only inside your site but from the world outside too.

Step 4: Assess the Big Risks

Steve talks about doing a Business Impact Analysis (BIA). This means thinking about what would happen if you lost:

• Key staff
• Systems or tech
• Utilities like electricity or water
• Premises (e.g., fire or flood damage)

Can your business survive a shock? Could it recover? These are questions safety leaders need to be asking and helping answer.

Step 5: Act on the Risks. Don’t Merely List Them

Once you’ve identified the risks, what’s next? Steve uses a model called the 4Ts:

• Treat the risk (reduce it)
• Tolerate the risk (live with it)
• Transfer the risk (e.g., insurance)
• Terminate the risk (remove it completely)

This approach helps senior leaders make smart, informed choices, and it gives you a seat at the table.

A New Role – The Evidence-Based Influencer

Steve finishes his article with a bold idea:

“An effective risk professional is an evidence-based influencer.”

This means:

• Using data, not gut feelings
• Having confidence in what you’re recommending
• Building consensus with others (especially on the front line)

Rather than trying to “control” everything, it’s about influencing others through good ideas, solid evidence, and trusted relationships.

Final Thoughts

James’s key message is clear. If you want to make real change, you’ve got to see the whole picture. That means:

• Reading the news and asking, “What does this mean for us?”
• Seeing tech as an opportunity, not merely a risk
• Being curious, open-minded, and always asking, “What don’t we know?”

It can be challenging. It takes time, effort, and maturity. Nevertheless, it’s the only way safety professionals can truly lead in today’s unpredictable world.

The safety world is changing, and so must we. By using tools like risk registers, PESTLE, SWOT, and a focus on trust and evidence, safety professionals can move from box-tickers to strategic influencers. The future can be uncertain, but with a holistic view and better tools, we can prepare for it.